Fury vs Wilder 3 preview & predictions: Going Under

Fury vs Wilder 3 Fight Poster

When you think about Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder 3, the odds are you start to feel like that woman on ‘Titanic’ who says “it’s been 84 years” – you know the meme…

This fight seems to have had more postponements than Tom Brady has won Super Bowl rings. You get the picture.

Fury (30-0-1) and Wilder (42-1-1) had been slated to meet for a third time back in 2020, but after a number of false starts ‘The Gypsy King’ said he was “moving on” in late December.

Wilder’s team though believed its contract was still enforceable – and took the matter to arbitration. Several months later, in early May to be exact, the ruling from Daniel Weinstein came down – shockingly it was in favor of ‘The Bronze Bomber’.

It said Fury must give Wilder that third fight, and do so by September 15. Thus wrecking the plan for Fury to instead face fellow Brit Anthony Joshua in a huge unification match in Saudi Arabia on August 14.

This came just 24 hours after a gleeful Fury had confirmed the Joshua date and venue in a social media post. Just incredible. And now Fury vs Joshua might never happen after AJ lost his titles in a shocking unanimous decision to Oleksandr Usyk. Boxing politics really do suck.

At least it looks like Fury vs Wilder 3 will now happen at long last – with the countdown well and truly on to that October showdown for the WBC, Ring magazine and lineal heavyweight titles.

And you can look back at their final press conference on the Strip, which took place Wednesday afternoon local time. Sadly no face-off and no real fireworks – bar those unleashed by the 89-year-old Bob Arum afterwards! Never mind Fury and Wilder, it was Kate Abdo and Mike Coppinger fending off haymakers…

Fury vs Wilder Odds

The first two times Fury and Wilder met, Deontay was a clear favorite – but not any more.

The manner of Fury’s victory in their Las Vegas rematch in February 2020 was stunning. A total demolition job.

Not surprising then that ‘The Gypsy King’ is the favorite for the trilogy showdown. He is best odds of -270 (bet $270 to win $100) with FanDuel and Caesars but as skinny as -313 with PointsBet.

Wilder meanwhile is biggest at +240 (bet $100 to win $245) with Unibet and SugarHouse as he looks to get his title back.

Predictions & Betting Picks

Twenty long months have passed since Fury and Wilder last laced them up for that one-sided rematch at the MGM Grand. But what has really changed?

Wilder has sacked Mark Breland and replaced him with long-time confidante Malik Scott. But do we really believe Scott – an average heavyweight once KOd by Wilder – can transform Deontay in an elusive boxer? Nah, not happening.

The key elements of this third meeting will not change from the first two. The ringcraft and supreme boxing savvy of Fury vs the devastating power of Wilder.

There is a school of thought that Fury can merely outbox Deontay, keep him at length and win a comfortable decision. But why would he risk that? The longer Wilder is in there, the bigger that puncher’s chance becomes.

When Wilder scaled a career-heaviest 238lbs at Friday’s weigh-in, it sealed his fate for us. He won’t be able to see out the distance and Fury (277lbs while wearing a hat, mask, trousers and shoes) will do what he did last time. Get on the front foot, bully the American, sap his energy and eventually finish him off.

In this case attack is absolutely the best form of defence, Fury would be wise to show aggression again and look to have Deontay out of there by the halfway point. It would be a shock if his trainer Javan ‘SugarHill’ Steward is not counseling him to do exactly that.

There is also a bet we really like on the undercard as two terrific unbeaten heavyweight prospects clash. Frank Sanchez (18-0) vs Efe Ajagba (15-0) would be the main event on any other night, and its a showdown to savor.

One crucial thing to remember – this is only a 10-rounder – and we expect it to go the distance. Sanchez is available at a sweet +225 to prevail by decision or technical decision. Our advice is to play at those odds.

OddsCritic Predictions

  • Tyson Fury to beat Deontay Wilder in Rounds 1-6 at +270 (FanDuel)
  • Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder 3 to last under 7.5 rounds at -105 (DraftKings)
  • Frank Sanchez to beat Efe Ajagba by decision or technical decision at +225 (Resorts)

When will the fight happen?

Like we said, the fight will happen Saturday (October 9) after Fury’s bout of COVID scuppered July 24.

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada is venue. Ring walks are expected between 2000 and 2100 local time (that’s between 1100 and midnight on the East Coast). The fight has not sold out yet, and tickets are still available on AXS. If you want to attend, you will need to wear a mask.

Which TV channel will the fight be on?

Fury is part way through a lucrative five-fight deal with Worldwide Leader ESPN, while Wilder is promoted by Al Haymon’s Premier Boxing Champions (PBC), which has a broadcast deal with FOX.

The first two meetings between Fury and Wilder were both pay-per-view on both ESPN and FOX – the second one with massive promotional might behind it. The result was a slightly disappointing 800,000 buys.

So we are about to get another joint PPV with the might of both ESPN and FOX behind it.

How much is the Fury vs Wilder 3 PPV?

Not cheap, but big fights never are. The pay-per-view will set you back a cool $79.99.

Fury vs Wilder 3 weights

The two men weighed in Friday in Las Vegas, and both posted career-heaviest numbers.

Fury was 277lbs (admittedly wearing an ‘Undertaker’ hat, a vest, trousers and training shoes) – four pounds heavier than for their 2020 rematch.

Wilder meanwile tipped the scales at 238lbs (17st) – seven pounds heavier than he had been for that loss in February 2020.

Fury vs Wilder: December 2018

The first meeting between Fury and Wilder took place at Staples Center in Los Angeles on December 1, 2018. Wilder was a heavy favorite with Fury only just back from a near three-year absence from the ring.

The Brit had come back from serious mental health issues as well as ballooning to 400lbs in weight.

Fury produced an incredible performance in the circumstances to totally outbox Wilder, and only two knockdowns by ‘The Bronze Bomber’ kept the fight anywhere near close.

The second knockdown in the 12th and final round was highlight-reel stuff. Fury appeared to be out cold, but after a few seconds he rose from the canvas a la ‘The Undertaker’ to hear the final bell.

It says much for Fury’s display that despite the knockdowns many experts felt he had won comfortably. But the scorecards gave it as a controversial draw. So we needed a rematch, obviously.

Fury vs Wilder 2: February 2020

It was a very different Fury who stepped into the ring against Wilder for a second time at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

With a new trainer – Kronk disciple Javan ‘SugarHill’ Steward – heading up his corner, he decided to be more aggressive and take the fight to Wilder. The results were stunning.

The most feared puncher in the heavyweight division was systematically dismantled round after round before his trainer Mark Breland threw in the towel during Round 7. It was Wilder’s first professional defeat – and a shocking one.

The aftermath of the fight saw wild excuses from the Deontay camp. From the weight of his elaborate ring walk costume to Fury’s gloves. He came up with just about everything to explain why he lost.

Now, likely Wilder will get the chance to prove that night was a fluke, and not his unmasking as a technically limited heavyweight with an incredible punch.

There is absolutely bad blood between these two men given the words exchanged since the rematch. Respect has been replaced by animosity.

It all lines up for a beauty if it goes ahead. Right now, the odds are very much in favor.

Who was favored in Fury vs Wilder?

Wilder was favorite for both of the first meetings between these two man. But the narrative has really changed after the beating Fury laid down on ‘The Bronze Bomber’ in February 2020.

How much will Fury and Wilder make?

Wilder and Fury each made around $25million for their Las Vegas rematch in February 2020.

The odds are this fight should surpass that in terms of pay-per-view numbers, and the two fighters should come out even further in front.

Those figures though are way short of what Fury might have earned for that unification with Joshua – Saudi Arabia had put up a record site fee of $155million. That was just to host the bout – imagine the numbers with PPV buys on top…

Fury vs Wilder 3 undercard

The undercard for Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder 3 is gonna be a heavyweight bonanza for fight fans.

The pay-per-view portion of the card contains not just the main event – but THREE MORE stellar heavyweight matchups.

The pick of them is a clash of two exciting unbeaten prospects in Nigerian Efe Ajagba (15-0) and ‘Cuban Flash’ Frank Sanchez (18-0). Two men with terrific potential and a clear path towards world level if they win this.

Brooklyn-based pole Adam Kownacki (20-1) meanwhile gets the chance to avenge his first pro defeat at the hands of Robert Helenius (30-3) last March. Kownacki knows a repeat likely ends any title ambitions he has.

Last but not least, the exciting Jared ‘Big Baby’ Anderson bids to make it 10 KOs in 10 pro starts against Vladimir Tereshkin (22-0-1). Still only 21, Anderson is seen by many as the future of the heavyweight division.

When will Tyson Fury fight Anthony Joshua?

Sadly, the answer right now is not for a long time, and maybe never.

Fury and Joshua had signed a two-fight deal in March before that Wilder arbitration win ruined their grand plan. But their unification showdown is toast after Joshua lost his IBF, WBA and WBO titles to Usyk.

Now the best we can hope for is this scenario:

  • Fury beats Wilder again on October 9
  • Joshua rematches Usyk and beats him
  • Then maybe we will finally get that long-awaited showdown

The bad news is we will likely need to wait at least another year for it.

Who was the last undisputed heavyweight champion?

Boxing’s politics and myriad of sanctioning bodies and titles means getting an undisputed champ is harder than ever.

To become undisputed a fighter needs to hold all four of the major accepted belts at the same time:

  • World Boxing Council (WBC): Fury is currently champion
  • World Boxing Association (WBA): Usyk is currently champion
  • International Boxing Federation (IBF): Usyk is currently champion
  • World Boxing Organization (WBO): Usyk is currently champion

The last man to hold the undisputed moniker was Brit Lennox Lewis back in November 1999 when he defeated Evander Holyfield in their Las Vegas rematch.