If you are betting on the NFL, stats should be always on your mind – a constant part of your daily picking routine.
In fact, making NFL predictions without checking out the stats is a dangerous game – you are quite literally winging it. Normally that’s a surefire way to lose your dollars.
Our simple guide tells you how to use stats to your advantage, and which ones are most important. Previous history matters – it tends to repeat itself so best heed the evidence people.
Best NFL stats for betting
There are a ton of stats out there – but some matter more than others when it comes to NFL betting:
Best betting stats for Against The Spread (ATS)
The most popular betting line in football betting is against the spread. One team is favored by a specific number of points – the spread. You bet on either team to cover the spread. For example:
Dallas is playing New England and is favored by 3.5 points
- If Dallas wins by 4 points they cover
- If New England loses by 3 points, they cover
The most important stat to look at here is each team’s record against the spread this season. You should check out how that record breaks down at home and on the road too. Arizona was terrific on the road vs the spread in 2021. At home? Not nearly so much.
Some teams meanwhile always play close – whatever the opposition – and you need to bear that in mind. Minnesota, we mean you…
It is always worth checking out what a team’s record is like both after a loss and after a bye. Both of those scenarios present different circumstances which often produce different results.
The injury report will also hold a ton of clues if you are betting vs the spread. If Team X is without its starting QB then its chances of covering are likely to be affected massively. The spread will likely take that into account too – online bookmakers are smart.
Finally, check out the head-to-head record between the two teams. Personnel and coaching tendencies mean games between the same teams often play out in a similar way time after time.
One note of caution when you are looking at head-to-head performance – don’t go too far back. Free agency and the salary cap means the turnover of rosters is much greater and faster than it used to be. We’d suggest no longer than three years.
Best betting stats for Moneyline
Moneyline of course means you are just betting on a team to win – and the odds reflect that. If it’s Good Team vs Bad Team your odds are going to be pretty skinny for Good Team.
The simplest stat to consult here is the win/loss record for each team – and again the sub-topics under that. So home vs road, after a loss, after a bye, vs certain teams etc etc. The deeper you go, the more you will likely learn.
Again check out the injury report, and the record over very recent years vs that team and that division.
Best betting stats for Over/Under on Total Points
A really fun bet which can provide interest for the entire 60 minutes. You bet of course on how many points both teams will score. So if Kansas City beats Denver 33-28, your total is 61. Online sportsbooks will set a line and you can either go Over or Under.
For this bet you need to look at a number of things:
- Each team’s scoring record so far this season – again home and on the road is worth breaking down.
- Look at who they have scored points against – it’s easy to beat up on bad teams remember.
- If there are key injuries, look at how a team’s production drops without that specific player.
- Check out the weather conditions – snow, rain or high wind will likely drop the potential for points.
Best stats for player props
Here you need to change your approach a little and focus on the specific player.
There are a ton of stats which will help you when you are betting on player props. These are fun bets and can offer some terrific odds so do not rule them out. If ATS is bread and butter, props are the gravy.
We have a few useful tips for you:
- When one player gets injured, it means an opportunity for another. Targets and carries = results.
- Recent trends are key – some players are hot for just short periods. Not everybody is consistent.
- When players are clearly carrying injuries you can tell. Production drops. Follow team sites for deeper updates.
Best betting stats – keep your own record
Okay this is super-important, maybe the most important point of all.
In life we remember the wins more than the losses – it’s human nature right?
So we strongly suggest you keep a record/ledger of your bets so you ABSOLUTELY KNOW how much you are winning or losing over time. If you don’t, you could be totally unaware of a pretty nasty developing story.
You should never bet more than you can afford to, and you should always be aware if you are losing a lot of cash. If you are, it’s likely giving you a very important message.
Keeping the record is also likely to influence your predictions and picks. In terms of how often you bet, what you bet on and how much you bet. The best advice we can ever give is do not chase any losses.
Your results so far should inform your betting strategy, but they should not define it.
We hope this guide helps you just a little in your battle with the bookmakers – good luck with your predictions!