NFL Picks Against The Spread: Week 3 Predictions!

NFL picks against the spread are the bread and butter fun predictions for any expert or bettor during the season and we have picks for every single game of the 2022 season.

Every weekend experts and fans alike put their reputations on the line by making their predictions for every game.

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Picking and betting against the spread is one of the most fun ways to bet on NFL games. It is the ultimate in ensuring parity. Everybody starts at pretty much the same odds.

One team is favored by a specific points margin thanks to Vegas and those online sportsbooks. If you pick that team they must win by more than that margin for you to collect. If you pick the underdog, the baseline for you to win is they must lose by less than that margin.

You can check out our full guide to NFL betting, which has more intel on ATS and all the other popular and best NFL bets.

NFL Picks Against The Spread – Week 3

Okay, so the 2022 schedule is now official and we have a terrific Week 3 schedule – starting with Steelers @ Browns on Thursday Night Football.

Here are the opening spreads, along with our ATS picks. All times are Eastern:

Week 3

Thursday September 22, 2022

  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) at Cleveland Browns (-5.5) 8:15 PM Prime Video – PICK: STEELERS

Sunday September 25, 2022

  • Houston Texans (+3) at Chicago Bears (-3) 1:00 PM CBS – PICK: TEXANS
  • Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots (+3) 1:00 PM FOX – PICK: RAVENS
  • Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins (+5.5) 1:00 PM CBS – PICK: BILLS
  • New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers (+3) 1:00 PM FOX – PICK: SAINTS
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) 1:00 PM CBS – PICK: CHIEFS
  • Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at New York Jets (+4.5) 1:00 PM CBS – PICK: BENGALS
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) at Los Angeles Chargers (-7) 4:05 PM CBS – PICK: JAGUARS
  • Detroit Lions (+6) at Minnesota Vikings (-6) 1:00 PM FOX – PICK: LIONS
  • Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at Tennessee Titans (+2) 1:00 PM FOX – PICK: RAIDERS
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders (+6.5) 1:00 PM FOX – PICK: EAGLES
  • Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) 4:25 PM FOX – PICK: BUCCANEERS
  • Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) 4:25 PM FOX – PICK: RAMS
  • Atlanta Falcons (+2) at Seattle Seahawks (-2) 4:25 PM FOX – PICK: FALCONS
  • San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos (+1.5) 8:20 PM NBC – PICK: 49ERS

Monday September 26, 2022

  • Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at New York Giants (-2.5) 8:15 PM ESPN/ABC – PICK: COWBOYS

NB: Odds correct when picks made on Wednesday September 21, 2022

2022 Season Record So far ATS: 24-22

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NFL Teams Records Against The Spread 2021 – who was best?

Just because a team is top of its division, it doesn’t always follow that team will be great against the spread.

Using the same logic, a team with a terrible W/L record can be great at covering the spread on a weekly basis – while still losing games.

Take Dan Campbell’s overachieving Detroit Lions in 2021. Before things kicked off in September, online sportsbooks were offering odds on whether they would finish 0-17 or not. Well eventually they finished with a 3-13-1 record. But if you look at Detroit’s record against the spread, you’ll find a story of a tough team which is well coached and never quits.

The end result was an 11-6 record against the spread, one of the league’s best. Yes they normally lose, but they also play above the lowly expectations sportsbooks have.

Another interesting study was Arizona. The Cardinals were absolutely stellar on the road – 8-1 on the season. But their record at home ATS stank.

TeamHomeRoadOverall
Dallas Cowboys5-38-113-4
Green Bay Packers7-15-312-5
Detroit Lions6-25-411-6
Buffalo Bills4-3-25-39-6-2
Arizona Cardinals2-68-110-7
Indianapolis Colts4-56-210-7
New England Patriots5-45-310-7
Tennessee Titans6-34-410-7
Cincinnati Bengals4-56-210-7
Miami Dolphins5-44-2-18-7-1
New Orleans Saints2-56-39-8
Seattle Seahawks4-45-49-8
San Francisco 49ers4-45-49-8
Minnesota Vikings4-45-49-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6-23-69-8
Philadelphia Eagles3-4-15-48-8-1
Kansas City Chiefs4-54-48-9
Las Vegas Raiders4-54-48-9
Los Angeles Chargers4-54-48-9
Denver Broncos5-43-58-9
Los Angeles Rams4-44-58-9
Pittsburgh Steelers4-54-48-9
Baltimore Ravens5-43-58-9
Houston Texans5-43-58-9
Washington Football Team3-54-4-17-9-1
Cleveland Browns3-64-47-10
Atlanta Falcons0-75-3-16-10-1
New York Giants3-53-66-11
New York Jets4-52-56-11
Chicago Bears3-53-66-11
Carolina Panthers2-63-65-12
Jacksonville Jaguars2-62-65-12

Do NFL computer picks always win?

Again, simple answer – sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t.

Computer picks obviously use statistical data and an algorithm, so they are based generally on fact – good thing.

The other plus point is that they have no inbuilt mental bias. Ask a guy in the street and he might just not like the Patriots – that is likely to influence his picks just a little. Even if he wouldn’t admit it.

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Can you win betting Against The Spread?

Absolutely you can, but it does take some research and sometimes a little luck.

Always check out the ATS records of the teams you are betting – particularly at home or on the road.

Yet again, we’d advise you to monitor injury reports, COVID reserve lists and weather. These can all factor heavily into what the spread looks like pre-game, and how the scenario then plays out for real.