Super Bowl Public Betting: Donald getting MVP love

Aaron Donald Los Angeles Rams 2021

The countdown to Super Bowl LVI is well and truly on, and the public betting for the big game is really hotting up.

We have access to sportsbook figures for all the key betting lines ahead of Sunday February at SoFi Stadium.

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Here are the latest moves and odds as we get closer to kickoff time (6.30pm ET, NBC). All lines and percentages are correct at 1300 ET on Sunday February 13, 2022.

Spread Public Betting

The line opened with Los Angeles favorite at -4 with Cincy +4. It is now back at 4.5:

SelectionOpenedCurrentBet CountHandle
Los Angeles Rams-4-4.547%43%
Cincinnati Bengals+4+4.553%57%

MVP Public Betting

We now have just hours to kickoff and we still have a DT as the #1 most popular MVP bet – Rams megastar Aaron Donald. His odds are coming down too – +1400 from an opening +1600:

SelectionOddsBet Count
Aaron Donald (DT, Rams)+140020.3%
Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals)+22011.8%
Matthew Stafford (QB, Rams)+12510.7%
Cooper Kupp (WR, Rams)+4509.4%
Odell Beckham Jr (WR, Rams)+33006.6%

Money Line Public Betting

Interesting figures here. Earlier this week while the Bengals have always edged the bet count percentage, the Rams accounted for around 70% of the handle. That figure is dropping – tons of late money for Cincy:

SelectionOpenedCurrentBet CountHandle
Los Angeles Rams-200-21047%56%
Cincinnati Bengals+165+17553%44%

Total Over/Under Public Betting

The line opened at 49.5 here and it’s shrinking slightly – now down to 48.5. In the early going the big money was for the Under but now the high rollers have come for the Over. Big swing as we approach kickoff:

SelectionOpenedCurrentBet CountHandle
Over49.548.556%47%
Under49.548.545%53%

First Touchdown Scorer

Rams WR and MVP contender Cooper Kupp was absolutely tearing it up here, and while he’s still the most popular selection the gap between him and the rest is starting to close:

SelectionOddsBet Count
Cooper Kupp (WR, Rams)+45019.2%
Odell Beckham JR (WR, Rams)+70014.7%
Ja’Marr Chase (WR, Bengals)+8509.1%
Joe Mixon (RB, Bengals)+6007.8%
Cam Akers (RB, Rams)+6506.5%

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Kupp again dominates here. He’s been money all season in pretty much every betting category, and that includes scoring TDs. He found the endzone in 11 of 17 regular-season games, and scored twice in five of those games:

SelectionOddsBet Count
Cooper Kupp (WR, Rams)-16028.5%
Ja’Marr Chase (WR, Bengals)+12515.9%
Odell Beckham Jr (WR, Rams)+12515.0%
Joe Mixon (RB, Bengals)-11010.2%
Tee Higgins (WR, Bengals)+1655.5%

Receiving Yards Over/Under

Bettors are loving Rams WR Odell Beckham Jr here, on the back of some impressive performances since his mid-season signing after that high-profile exit from Cleveland.

Kupp (also prominent in the betting) should get most attention from the Cincy secondary – which could mean big opps for OBJ. He caught 9 balls for 113 yards in the NFC Championship Game win over San Francisco.

Worth noting that while the line for Beckham opened at 60.5, it is now up to 65.5 approaching kickoff:

SelectionOddsBet Count
Odell Beckham Jr Over 65.5-11533.7%
Cooper Kupp Over 105.5-11523.1%
Ja’Marr Chase Over 80.5-11517.7%
Joe Mixon Over 25.5-10512.9%
Cam Akers Over 15.5-1259.6%

Rushing Yards Over/Under

Surprisingly, it’s the quarterbacks who are super-popular here. Burrow in particular used his legs to great effect in that upset defeat of the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. He racked up 25 yards on 5 attempts there – way in excess of the 10.5 line for Super Bowl LVI.

Rams RB Cam Akers clearly has divided opinion with bettors. His Over and Under both appear in the top 5 selections in terms of bet count:

SelectionOddsBet Count
Joe Burrow Over 10.5-13130.2%
Matthew Stafford Over 5.5+10014.5%
Cam Akers Under 65.5-11512.6%
Cam Akers Over 65.5-1159.4%
Joe Mixon Under 60.5-1257.5%

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards

Stafford is favorite for MVP honors and playing in his home stadium. He is expected to have a big game – this is why the Rams traded the house to bring him over from Detroit in the last offseason.

Bettors seem pretty confident he’ll cover the Over here, and the line is rising – now 285.5 from an early 280.5:

SelectionOddsBet Count
Over 285.5 Passing Yards-11586.5%
Under 285.5 Passing Yards-11513.5%

Joe Burrow Passing Yards

If bettors are right we are in for an offensive shootout, with the weight of bets again convinced that Burrow will go Over 275.5 Yards at SoFi on Sunday night. In fact the confidence has now pushed his line up to 280.5 – the same as Stafford’s.

Remember though the handle percentages might be drastically different. This is pure number of bets – not the amount of money being wagered. Big difference potentially:

SelectionOddsBet Count
Over 280.5 Passing Yards-10575.1%
Under 280.5 Passing Yards-12524.9%

Matthew Stafford Passing Touchdowns

Again, the volume of bets suggests a big passing day for Stafford. But remember again this is bet count, not the handle. If somebody bets the under with a million bucks – that changes things significantly:

SelectionOddsBet Count
Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns+15087.4%
Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns-20012.6%

Joe Burrow Passing Touchdowns

Most bettors think Burrow will throw for at least a pair of scores on Sunday night – now more than 90%. The odds for that are shrinking too – now at -191 from an early -160:

SelectionOddsBet Count
Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns-19191.8%
Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns+1458.2%

Coin Toss Result

Ok so here we have the ultimate 50/50 bet – a literal coin flip. But still, a pronounced betting edge for Tails in terms of Bet Count. Tails has a 29-26 edge in the 55 Super Bowls played to date:

Coin Toss ResultOddsBet CountHandle
Tails-10862.8%51.3%
Heads-10837.2%48.7%

Gatorade Bath Color

So, the trend started by the Giants and ‘The Big Tuna’ Bill Parcells back in Pasadena in early 1987 is now 35 years old, going strong AND the subject of a popular prop bet. We have a mover too with yellow/green surging to the head of the line. Latest odds are as follows:

Gatorade Bath ColorOddsBet Count
Yellow/Green+35025.6%
Orange+22521.6%
Blue+40020.6%
Purple+130011.4%
Red/Pink+80010.9%
Clear/Water+4508.5%
None+6001.4%

Finally, what are most people betting on right now? Here are your top 5 as of Saturday February 12:

Most Popular Super Bowl Prop Bets By Ticket
Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150)
Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
Odell Beckham Jr Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-191)
Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)
Most Popular Super Bowl Prop Bets By Handle
Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150)
Opening Kickoff To NOT Be A Touchback (-143)
Cincinnati Bengals Over 1.5 Field Goals (-115)
Player Fantasy H2H Joe Mixon Over Ja’Marr Chase (-115)
Odell Beckham Jr Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
How do I bet on the Super Bowl?

So you need a couple of things here. Firstly you need to be in a state with legal sports betting when you place your bet (this is about location not residency, people). Then you need an account with an online bookmaker. To get that account, download their mobile app, register and sign up. They do offer terrific signup bonuses and you can sign up with multiple sportsbooks to claim them all. There are age restrictions depending on which state you are betting in. Normally 18 or 21 is the threshold.

Is it legal to bet on the Super Bowl?

In some states yes, in some now. The former group is growing all the time, with New York and Louisiana both allowing mobile sports betting from January 2022 for example.