NFL MVP Odds 2022: Josh Allen the clear favorite

Aaron Rodgers

The NFL MVP odds were right in 2021, and Aaron Rodgers won the league’s most coveted individual honor for the fourth time.

Rodgers pipped the now retired Tom Brady to repeat as the league’s best regular-season player following his stellar 2020. Now the big question is can he threepeat in 2022?

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Here is all you need to know about the current NFL betting odds to be the best player in the biggest league of all.

Who is favored to win the NFL MVP in 2022?

While Rodgers is already savoring that fourth MVP award, which he received in Los Angeles in February, we are already on to that 2022 season.

At least we now know that Rodgers will still be playing his ball in Green Bay this coming Fall after agreeing a monster four-year contract extension worth an eye-popping $200million.

To add further spice to an already heady MVP mix, the GOAT Tom Brady has unretired just five weeks after retiring, and he’ll back for a 23rd NFL season in Tampa Bay. We also now know he is headed for a TV analyst with FOX Sports when he does eventually quit – a 10-year deal worth an eye-popping $375million!

Buffalo signal caller Josh Allen leads the line at +700 (bet $100 to win $750) while Brady and Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes are next, both at +900.

Rodgers is +1000 to win MVP for the third straight year (that is out from +800 after the trade which sent his main aerial weapon Davante Adams to Las Vegas). Meanwhile Joe Burrow is +1300 and Justin Herbert a little shorter at +1200. Then we have Denver new boy Russell Wilson and Super Bowl-winning Rams QB Matthew Stafford at +1600. Dallas star Dak Prescott is +1800 while Kyler Murray of Arizona is +2200 and Lamar Jackson (Baltimore) is at +2500 right now.

Deshaun Watson is also in the MVP mix after the huge trade which took him to Cleveland – he is +2800 to crown his first year in the Dawg Pound with the biggest individual award of all. Those odds might sound pretty good, but we’ll explain why they might not be a little later in this article.

The leading non-quarterback in the odds is no surprise – it’s Tennessee RB Derrick Henry. He was on course for a career year in 2021 before his season was derailed by foot surgery. He’s +5000 to bounce back in the grand manner in 2022. Another RB at +5000 is Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts.

The latest odds to be NFL MVP in the 2022 season are as follows:

PlayerPositionTeamOddsSportsbook
Josh AllenQBBuffalo Bills+700Widely available
Tom BradyQB Tampa Bay Buccaneers+900Caesars, bet365
Patrick MahomesQBKansas City Chiefs+900DraftKings
Aaron RodgersQBGreen Bay Packers+1000Widely available
Justin HerbertQBLos Angeles Chargers+1200Caesars
Joe BurrowQBCincinnati Bengals+1300Caesars, bet365
Russell WilsonQBDenver Broncos*+1600Caesars
Matthew StaffordQBLos Angeles Rams+1600Caesars, PointsBet
Dak PrescottQBDallas Cowboys+1800Caesars
Kyler MurrayQBArizona Cardinals+2200FanDuel
Lamar JacksonQBArizona Cardinals+2500DraftKings
Deshaun WatsonQBCleveland Browns+2800DraftKings

NB: Odds correct on May 28, 2022

MVP Race 2022 – The Leading Contenders

Aaron Rodgers: When Rodgers started 2021 with a terrible showing in that 38-3 rout at the hands of New Orleans, repeating as MVP looked pretty unlikely. After that though #12 was absolutely lights out, leading the Packers to the #1 seed in the NFC. Following that Saints debacle, he threw 37 touchdown passes vs just two interceptions. Sensational in any language, and he is now staying in Green Bay for four more years in theory. The big question mark for 2022 surrounds who Rodgers will be throwing to. As already stated, Adams has bolted for Las Vegas and until the Draft there was literally nobody left in that WR room at Lambeau. Green Bay did at least make some moves during the Draft, trading up to get North Dakota State speedster Christian Watson in Round 2, and following up in Round 4 with the selection of Nevada’s Romeo Doubs. Finally, with pick #258, the Packers took another WR in Nebraska’s Samori Toure.

Tom Brady: He’s back…just five weeks after retiring. Brady was a strong contender for MVP honors in 2021 at the age of 44, so why not in 2022 at the age of 45? Brady threw for more than 5000 yards and 43 TDs last season and he will surely be great again. Just how great depends on how the Bucs can maintain his supporting cast but the signs are pretty good with Chris Godwin signing a longterm deal and Russell Gage coming over from Atlanta in free agency (excellent pickup). Still no news on his BFF Gronk tho…

Patrick Mahomes: The brilliant Kansas City QB fell just a little from his incredible standards in 2021. That costly misfire at the end of the first half in the AFC Championship Game will haunt Mahomes until September, when he gets the chance to atone. A sensational talent and will surely be in the mix for MVP honors if the Chiefs can successfully replace the departed Tyreek Hill – who was traded to Miami. The move to draft Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore in Round 2 was an excellent get, and FA signings Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster add further depth to Mahomes’ weaponry.

Josh Allen: Any doubts about the Buffalo QB are surely now no more. He was brilliant for the second consecutive season, including in that heartbreaking playoff defeat in Kansas City. Allen is a terrific dual threat with a bazooka for an arm and legs that defenders find tough to bring down. Worth every cent of that $258million contract extension he signed in the summer of 2021.

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Jonathan Taylor: Taylor’s career year fizzled out in Jacksonville in January as the Colts dropped a shocker to miss out on a postseason berth which had looked a certainty two weeks before. But the Indy back still had an amazing year as he racked up more than 1800 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. He was the heart and soul of an Indy team which recovered from an awful start to home in on a playoff berth. It was not to be, but he should be great again in 2022, especially with a good QB in Matt Ryan aboard to provide a balanced attack.

Cooper Kupp: What can you say about Kupp? Incredible production all year long as he formed an unbelievable partnership with new Rams QB Matthew Stafford. He produced an astonishing 1947 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns as he powered Los Angeles to an NFC West title before producing an MVP performance in the win over the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. Uncoverable, unstoppable, and sure to be a major player again in 2022 after being named Offensive Player Of The Year in 2021. The acquisition of Allen Robinson should ensure Kupp has plenty of freedom to operate again in 2022.

Joe Burrow: The former LSU standout was brilliant in 2021 as he came back from the devastating knee injury which curtailed his rookie season in 2020. He grabbed NFL Comeback Player Of The Year honors to prove the point. Burrow hooked up with former LSU BFF Ja’Marr Chase to strike fear into opposing defenses. Burrow ended his season on an incredible high – throwing for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs in the wins over Baltimore and Kansas City which clinched an unlikely AFC North title for the Bengals. Should only get better in 2022 as he enters his third year as a pro, particularly with the Bengals significantly improving their offensive line in free agency.

Dak Prescott: The Dallas QB was sensational in the first half of 2021, but his play – and that of his team – fell off when it mattered. So much so that he went from being a lock for CPOY to missing out on the award. A playoff defeat vs San Francisco was a bitter pill for a Cowboys team which was built to contend for a title. Was it Prescott’s niggling calf injury? Poor offensive line play? The lack of a running game down the stretch? Likely a bit of all three but Dak must put it together for a full year in 2022 to contend. The fact Prescott has lost WR1 Amari Cooper (traded to Cleveland) is not a great start to the year. Another of his main targets Michael Gallup is also set to miss the first three or four games of 2022 as he rehabs a torn ACL. Third-round draft pick Jalen Tolbert could surprise some people right from the get-go.

Lamar Jackson: Jackson claimed MVP honors in 2019 but he has not played quite at that level since. COVID and injury problems affected him in both 2020 and 2021, and he will hope to be back to full health in 2022. There are few more difficult players to stop when in their prime.

Justin Herbert: The Los Angeles Chargers QB progressed again in Year 2 of his NFL education and he looks primed to take another big step in 2022. He has everything required to be an alltime great – poise, intangibles and an incredible arm. No wonder he’s the hipster’s choice when it comes to NFL signal callers.

Derrick Henry: An absolute bulldozer of a man, Henry has been rampaging through NFL lines for years now and he was en route to his best campaign yet before that foot injury in 2021. The only silver lining? He goes into 2022 with less miles than expected on that clock. Will be tough to stop yet again.

Kyler Murray: Looked like the MVP in waiting for the first half of 2021, before he and the Cardinals flamed out in incredible fashion. Their gradual decline culminated in an embarrassing playoff loss to the Rams, and later Murray scrubbed all mentions of the franchise from his social media profiles. Right now we don’t know exactly what it means, but wherever he is in 2022 Murray will be an MVP threat. Now has former college teammate Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown to throw to after the Cards acquired the WR in a draft-day trade.

Russell Wilson: Another big-name quarterback who is on the move for 2022 after that blockbuster trade to Denver. He moves from Seattle (in full rebuild mode now) to a team with genuine Super Bowl aspirations. The Broncos have weapons galore with the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick – now it’s up to Russ to make it all sing.

Matthew Stafford: There were a ton of doubters when the Rams traded the house to acquire Stafford from Detroit before the 2021 season. He silenced them all by leading the Los Angeles franchise to a Super Bowl championship in their own stadium. What a way to announce yourself in Tinseltown. Expect Stafford to again be highly productive in that Sean McVay offense this year with that new $160million contract extension in his back pocket. He also has a shiny new toy to play with after the Rams signed WR Allen Robinson in free agency.

Deshaun Watson: Now absolutely a contender after that blockbusting trade from Houston to Cleveland. A note of caution though, with Watson having those 22 civil lawsuits hanging over him alleging sexual misconduct. There is still a strong chance he gets a suspension from the NFL at some stage despite a grand jury deciding not to indict him. That base salary of $1million for 2022 almost suggests that could be in play in the Fall.

Previous winners – the stats

Next time anybody tries to tell you the NFL is not all about the quarterback, just show them the odds to be MVP. Then show them the list of previous winners.

There is a reason this list is so one-sided – it’s based on past history and fact.

Since the Pro Football Writers of America began naming an MVP in 1975, the men under center have dominated. Thirty-three QBs have won the award outright in that time while Brett Favre shared with Barry Sanders in 1997.

Running backs are next best with 11 successes along with that Sanders share. But the decreasing value of that position is highlighted by the fact a runner hasn’t taken the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012.

In recent years – partly thanks to rule changes – it is all about the QB. They have won the award every year since Peterson and account for 18 of the last 20 winners. The last 10 winners are:

  • 2012: Adrian Peterson (RB, Minnesota)
  • 2013: Peyton Manning (QB, Denver)
  • 2014: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)
  • 2015: Cam Newton (QB, Carolina)
  • 2016: Matt Ryan (QB, Atlanta)
  • 2017: Tom Brady (QB, New England)
  • 2018: Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City)
  • 2019: Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore)
  • 2020: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)
  • 2021: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)

The only two players outside QB and RB to be NFL MVP in the modern era are both generational talents – potentially the greatest ever at their positions.

Linebacker Lawrence Taylor (the only defensive winner) was best of all in 1986 as he anchored the Giants D on that epic Super Bowl run. San Francisco WR Jerry Rice meanwhile was the only pass catcher to win the award one year later.

Who chooses the NFL MVP?

The NFL MVP is chosen annually by 50 sports writers – but it’s important to note when they actually make their choice.

The writers all vote for MVP at the end of the regular season – so that is all that matters. Playoff success will not count at all.

When is the NFL MVP announced?

The next Awards Ceremony (also known as NFL Honors) will be televised nationally during the week of Super Bowl LVII. The big game itself will be played in Glendale, Arizona on Sunday February 12, 2023.

The ceremony normally takes place the Thursday night before the big game – which will be February 9, 2023. Start time is normally 9pm ET/6pm Pacific.

Watch the announcement on TV

The next Awards Ceremony (also known as NFL Honors) will be televised by FOX and simulcast on NFL Network.