NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes takes the L, Lamar is hot

Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens NFL MVP Odds

Patrick Mahomes took a loss in more ways than one Sunday as his NFL MVP odds took a hit in Kansas City’s shock loss in Indianapolis.

Mahomes was pretty underwhelming as the Chiefs blew a fourth-quarter lead to hand a first win to a team which was blanked by Jacksonville in Week 2. He is now out to +700 from a pregame +500.

Josh Allen also saw his team lose Sunday as Buffalo went down 21-19 to the Dolphins in Miami. That didn’t impact his MVP odds though as he threw for a stellar 400 yards and two touchdowns. He remains your +325 (bet $100 to win $325) betting favorite.

The big mover in the betting line is Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson, in to +700 from a pregame +1300 after a terrific showing in the Ravens’ 37-26 win over New England.

The odds on Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts are also tumbling – Hurts is also +700 from a pregame +1100 after starring once again in an easy win at Washington on Sunday.

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Here is all you need to know about the current NFL betting odds to be the best player in the best league of all.

Who is favored to win the NFL MVP in 2022?

So Week 3 is almost in the books (Monday Night Football is still to come) and here are the latest odds:

PlayerPositionTeamOddsSportsbook
Josh AllenQBBuffalo Bills+325PointsBet
Patrick MahomesQBKansas City Chiefs+700Widely available
Lamar JacksonQBBaltimore Ravens+700DraftKings, Caesars
Jalen HurtsQBPhiladelphia Eagles+700Widely available
Justin HerbertQBLos Angeles Chargers+1600FanDuel, Caesars
Tua TagovailoaQBMiami Dolphins+2000PointsBet
Aaron RodgersQBGreen Bay Packers+2500DraftKings
Matthew StaffordQBLos Angeles Rams+3000Widely available
Tom BradyQBTampa Bay Buccaneers+3300PointsBet
Joe BurrowQBCincinnati Bengals+3500DraftKings

NB: Odds correct Monday September 27, 2022

NFL MVP Predictions & Picks for 2022

So, time to give you our Futures Picks to win NFL MVP honors in 2022 – and we have two of them.

Our first prediction is not particularly sexy, and neither are his odds, but Josh Allen should be terrific in 2022 as he leads a Buffalo Bills team which is absolutely built to win it all this season.

The Bills are worthy Super Bowl favorite and Allen is a worthy leader of the betting line to be MVP. He was fantastic in the postseason in 2021 before that agonizing loss to Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead. He again has terrific weapons to throw to, plus an excellent offensive line and improved running game.

While Allen is our safe bet, we also have a pick at much bigger odds for you – San Francisco QB Trey Lance at widely available odds of +3000.

Lance will take over from Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter under center in the Bay Area in 2022, and he will run an offense loaded with talent. WR Deebo Samuel is back with a contract extension, TE George Kittle will be stellar again and the running game is one of the best in the league.

With coaching genius Kyle Shanahan providing the strategy, Lance could not have a better position to step into in year two of his NFL journey. He is well worth a wager at odds which will quickly disappear if he starts well.

OddsCritic NFL MVP Picks & Predictions for 2022

  • Josh Allen to be NFL MVP in 2022 at +700 (widely available)
  • Trey Lance to be NFL MVP in 2022 at +3000 (widely available)

NB: Odds correct when predictions made on September 4, 2022

MVP Race 2022 – The Leading Contenders

Josh Allen: Cemented his claims as a rock-solid favorite with a terrific personal performance in the loss to Miami. Racked up 400 passing yards and threw for two TDs. It just wasn’t enough to keep the Bills undefeated.

Aaron Rodgers: Despite a heavily depleted group of receivers, Rodgers overachieved Sunday in putting up 255 passing yards and two touchdowns in a fantastic Green Bay win vs a stingy Tampa Bay defense. Don’t rule out the threepeat just yet…

Tom Brady: Brady just doesn’t have anybody to throw to right now – his receiving corps is so banged up it is just not funny. He still put up 271 yards and a score Sunday, in that losing effort to the Packers.

Patrick Mahomes: Misfired in an underwhelming display in Indianapolis. Threw for just 262 yards as the Chiefs somehow lost to a Gus Bradley defense – the ones he normally destroys.

Justin Herbert: Suited up despite that painful rib injury for the home game, but might now wish he hadn’t. He did threw for 297 yards but it wasn’t nearly enough as Trevor Lawrence and the Jags battered the Chargers 38-10 at SoFi.

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Joe Burrow: Looked a little bit more like the old Joe Burrow as he threw for 275 yards and three scores in a Cincinnati win at the New York Jets. A game vs the Jets will do that for a man…

Lamar Jackson: Fantastic once again as the Ravens won in New England. Four passing TDs and another 100-yard rushing day were too much for the Pats. Sensational play, wonder when he’ll get that new contract?

Jalen Hurts: Has gone from being pretty big odds heading into the regular season to just +800, and he was stellar again in the win at Washington with 340 passing yards and three TD passes.

Tua Tagovailoa: Didn’t put up the gaudy numbers he had in the win over Baltimore, but gutted it out after suffering a head injury to lead the Dolphins over the NFL’s best team. The Bills were stunned, and Tua is a bona fide MVP contender now.

Previous winners – the stats

Next time anybody tries to tell you the NFL is not all about the quarterback, just show them the odds to be MVP. Then show them the list of previous winners.

There is a reason this list is so one-sided – it’s based on past history and fact.

Since the Pro Football Writers of America began naming an MVP in 1975, the men under center have dominated. Thirty-three QBs have won the award outright in that time while Brett Favre shared with Barry Sanders in 1997.

Running backs are next best with 11 successes along with that Sanders share. But the decreasing value of that position is highlighted by the fact a runner hasn’t taken the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012.

In recent years – partly thanks to rule changes – it is all about the QB. They have won the award every year since Peterson and account for 18 of the last 20 winners. The last 10 winners are:

  • 2012: Adrian Peterson (RB, Minnesota)
  • 2013: Peyton Manning (QB, Denver)
  • 2014: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)
  • 2015: Cam Newton (QB, Carolina)
  • 2016: Matt Ryan (QB, Atlanta)
  • 2017: Tom Brady (QB, New England)
  • 2018: Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City)
  • 2019: Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore)
  • 2020: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)
  • 2021: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)

The only two players outside QB and RB to be NFL MVP in the modern era are both generational talents – potentially the greatest ever at their positions.

Linebacker Lawrence Taylor (the only defensive winner) was best of all in 1986 as he anchored the Giants D on that epic Super Bowl run. San Francisco WR Jerry Rice meanwhile was the only pass catcher to win the award one year later.

Who chooses the NFL MVP?

The NFL MVP is chosen annually by 50 sports writers – but it’s important to note when they actually make their choice.

The writers all vote for MVP at the end of the regular season – so that is all that matters. Playoff success will not count at all.

When is the NFL MVP announced?

The next Awards Ceremony (also known as NFL Honors) will be televised nationally during the week of Super Bowl LVII. The big game itself will be played in Glendale, Arizona on Sunday February 12, 2023.

The ceremony normally takes place the Thursday night before the big game – which will be February 9, 2023. Start time is normally 9pm ET/6pm Pacific.

Watch the announcement on TV

The next Awards Ceremony (also known as NFL Honors) will be televised by FOX and simulcast on NFL Network.