NFL MVP Odds: Hurts agony, big swing to Mahomes

We have a massive and potentially decisive swing in the NFL MVP odds after a huge injury blow for Jalen Hurts following the Week 15 action.

Hurts had just taken over from Patrick Mahomes as MVP favorite heading into Week 15, but he suffered a sprained shoulder in Sunday’s 25-20 win over the Bears in Chicago. He is now a major doubt for Saturday’s big NFC East showdown with the Dallas Cowboys, and could yet miss the remainder of the regular season.

Any time missed would be potentially devastating for Hurts, and sportsbooks quickly reacted by restoring Mahomes to the position he had previously held as favorite to win the hallowed award.

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Here is all you need to know about the current NFL betting odds to be the best player in the best league of all.

Who is favored to win the NFL MVP in 2022?

So Week 15 is in the books and here are the latest NFL MVP odds:

Patrick MahomesQBKansas City Chiefs-250BetRivers
Jalen HurtsQBPhiladelphia Eagles+550Widely available
Joe BurrowQBCincinnati Bengals+850FanDuel
Josh AllenQBBuffalo Bills+850FanDuel

NB: Odds correct on Tuesday December 20, 2022

MVP Race 2022 – The Leading Contenders

Jalen Hurts: Absolutely fantastic yet again as the Eagles came from behind to win 25-20 in Chicago. Passed for 315 yards and ran for 61 yards and 3 TDs. But then came news of that shoulder injury, which could derail his MVP bid in a big way.

Patrick Mahomes: Threw for 336 yards and a pair of scores as the Chiefs finally overcame plucky Houston 30-24 in an overtime thriller in Texas. Now a hot MVP favorite with Hurts potentially sidelined through injury.

Joe Burrow: Led the Bengals to a sixth straight win and first place in the AFC North as he outplayed Tom Brady down in Florida. Threw for 200 yards and 4 scores in a 34-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Josh Allen: Looked like the player who had been early-season MVP favorite as he threw for 304 yards and 4 TDs in an epic 32-29 Bills win over the Miami Dolphins on Saturday night. Also rushed for 77 yards on 10 carries to top off a fantastic personal performance. He is now back in the MVP running with 3 weeks remaining.

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NFL MVP Predictions & Picks for 2022

So, time to give you our Futures Picks to win NFL MVP honors in 2022 – and we have two of them.

Our first prediction is not particularly sexy, and neither are his odds, but Josh Allen should be terrific in 2022 as he leads a Buffalo Bills team which is absolutely built to win it all this season.

The Bills are worthy Super Bowl favorite and Allen is a worthy leader of the betting line to be MVP. He was fantastic in the postseason in 2021 before that agonizing loss to Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead. He again has terrific weapons to throw to, plus an excellent offensive line and improved running game.

While Allen is our safe bet, we also have a pick at much bigger odds for you – San Francisco QB Trey Lance at widely available odds of +3000.

Lance will take over from Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter under center in the Bay Area in 2022, and he will run an offense loaded with talent. WR Deebo Samuel is back with a contract extension, TE George Kittle will be stellar again and the running game is one of the best in the league.

With coaching genius Kyle Shanahan providing the strategy, Lance could not have a better position to step into in year two of his NFL journey. He is well worth a wager at odds which will quickly disappear if he starts well.

OddsCritic NFL MVP Picks & Predictions for 2022

  • Josh Allen to be NFL MVP in 2022 at +700 (widely available)
  • Trey Lance to be NFL MVP in 2022 at +3000 (widely available)

NB: Odds correct when predictions made on September 4, 2022

Previous winners – the stats

Next time anybody tries to tell you the NFL is not all about the quarterback, just show them the odds to be MVP. Then show them the list of previous winners.

There is a reason this list is so one-sided – it’s based on past history and fact.

Since the Pro Football Writers of America began naming an MVP in 1975, the men under center have dominated. Thirty-three QBs have won the award outright in that time while Brett Favre shared with Barry Sanders in 1997.

Running backs are next best with 11 successes along with that Sanders share. But the decreasing value of that position is highlighted by the fact a runner hasn’t taken the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012.

In recent years – partly thanks to rule changes – it is all about the QB. They have won the award every year since Peterson and account for 18 of the last 20 winners. The last 10 winners are:

  • 2012: Adrian Peterson (RB, Minnesota)
  • 2013: Peyton Manning (QB, Denver)
  • 2014: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)
  • 2015: Cam Newton (QB, Carolina)
  • 2016: Matt Ryan (QB, Atlanta)
  • 2017: Tom Brady (QB, New England)
  • 2018: Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City)
  • 2019: Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore)
  • 2020: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)
  • 2021: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay)

The only two players outside QB and RB to be NFL MVP in the modern era are both generational talents – potentially the greatest ever at their positions.

Linebacker Lawrence Taylor (the only defensive winner) was best of all in 1986 as he anchored the Giants D on that epic Super Bowl run. San Francisco WR Jerry Rice meanwhile was the only pass catcher to win the award one year later.

Who chooses the NFL MVP?

The NFL MVP is chosen annually by 50 sports writers – but it’s important to note when they actually make their choice.

The writers all vote for MVP at the end of the regular season – so that is all that matters. Playoff success will not count at all.

When is the NFL MVP announced?

The next Awards Ceremony (also known as NFL Honors) will be televised nationally during the week of Super Bowl LVII. The big game itself will be played in Glendale, Arizona on Sunday February 12, 2023.

The ceremony normally takes place the Thursday night before the big game – which will be February 9, 2023. Start time is normally 9pm ET/6pm Pacific.

Watch the announcement on TV

The next Awards Ceremony (also known as NFL Honors) will be televised by FOX and simulcast on NFL Network.