Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier 3 just had to happen, and it finally goes down Saturday night at UFC 264 – we’ve gone inside the numbers to assess the latest odds for this huge trilogy fight.
The Notorious one and The Diamond – both now 32 – have already met twice, with one win each. So a trilogy bout to settle the score once and for all was an inevitability.
Now we’ll tell you what the odds are, as well as when the fight happens and how you can watch it. Together with a look back at their first two meetings and expert and free betting picks.
McGregor vs Poirier 3 odds
When this bout was announced a couple of months ago, McGregor opened up as a slight favorite on the money line betting. Not any more, as the money has come for Poirier.
Conor meanwhile is now the underdog and while he is still pretty short at -102 with FanDuel, he’s as big as +115 with Resorts. We are almost in pick em territory though – it’s that close according to online bookmakers.
McGregor vs Poirier 3 predictions and picks
Poirier turned down a shot at the UFC Lightweight Championship to get another dance with McGregor, which was a major gamble career-wise, but from a dollars perspective he is laughing all the way to the bank.
Conor made a huge mistake walking into the second fight of this trilogy adopting a ‘pure’ boxing stance, dropping his usual open palm wide karate-esque method. This allowed Poirier to take major advantage of the leading leg of McGregor, wearing him down with low kicks until he was able to unload with combinations to end the fight.
The outcome Saturday very much depends on ‘which’ Conor McGregor we get in the cage this weekend. He will need to outstrike Poirier, who is arguably more accomplished than ‘The Notorious One’ in the clinch AND on the ground. If you’re Dana White, you want McGregor to win this and set up a date with Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira, but this really is a coin-flip main event if ever there was one.
McGregor knows to avoid the leg kicks and Poirier knows to avoid the explosive punching power, so you’re going to likely see two fighters who are wary for the opening couple of rounds.
That said, we see Poirier then outsmarting McGregor and gaining the TKO in Rounds 3 or 4. FanDuel offers +1900 for the latter and that is good for us. Proving once and for all that rematch victory earlier this year was legit.
OddsCritic Picks: Dustin Poirier to win in Round 4 vs Conor McGregor at +1900 (FanDuel).
When will McGregor vs Poirier 3 happen?
McGregor vs Poirier 3 is slated to take place at UFC 264 on Saturday July 10.
The event will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and start time for the main event will likely be between 2000 and 2100 local time (2300 and 0000 ET).
How can I watch the fight on TV?
If you want to watch McGregor vs Porier 3 on TV or live stream it, the best deal is to buy a UFC Bundle for $89.98.
This means you’ll not only get the next PPV, but with it a year’s subscription to ESPN+, which airs the PPV shows.
Recent McGregor PPVs alone – including the Poirier rematch – have retailed for $69.99 so this is pretty good value. The ESPN+ annual sub on its own is worth $59.99.
One thing to remember though, you’ll need to time it right. Because of the frequency of big UFC shows, you’ll need to strike when the offer comes in ahead of McGregor vs Poirier 3. Not earlier, not later.
McGregor vs Poirier I
Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier met for the first time way back on September 27, 2014 – and it didn’t last long.
Conor, then on the rise to MMA megastardom, took just 106 seconds to dismantle the overmatched Poirier in brutal fashion at UFC 178 in the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
It would be a long time before they met again, and the result would be very very different.
McGregor vs Poirier 2
The rematch between McGregor and Poirier finally went down in UFC 257 on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi. The date – January 24 , 2021.
On this occasion Conor would apparently pay for the inactivity which had crept in during recent years. He had only fought once in the preceding 27 months – an easy victory over Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone.
The bout would also herald the first time McGregor would be stopped by punches in his UFC career as he slipped to a second-round TKO defeat.
Afterwards the Irishman blamed that inactivity for his performance, and added “it’s a tough one to swallow”. He is now 3-3 in his last six UFC fights.
Despite the previous inactivity, the fight again highlighted McGregor’s pulling power as a major PPV draw for the UFC. The fight racked up an impressive 1.6million buys.
So now, on to the trilogy…
How to bet on UFC
If you’re looking to bet on McGregor vs Poirier 3 but are new to the game, fear not.
We’ve put together a guide to UFC betting and you can read it before laying down your dollars. Time well spent!