The Dallas Cowboys are set to welcome back Dak Prescott for Sunday’s showdown vs the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium, and we have predictions for you.
Dallas returns home to JerryWorld after its first loss in five games at Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football, and the first loss EVER for Cooper Rush as a starter.
Prescott is likely to start Sunday after recovering from surgery on the thumb he injured in a loss to Tampa Bay on opening night. He told reporters he “felt fantastic” when throwing on the field before kickoff at the Linc.
The Lions meanwhile come into this game after a bye – we last saw them losing 29-0 to the New England Patriots in Foxboro. It was a pretty banged-up Detroit team that day, that bye week should have helped them to heal a little.
Cowboys vs Lions Predictions
Okay, here they are, our predictions for that shootout in Arlington on Sunday (1pm Eastern, CBS).
Remember we gave you 2 winning wagers for that loss in Philly. Rush Under 222.5 Passing Yards and Tony Pollard Over 32.5 Rushing yards. Both hit comfortably.
Point Spread: Dallas Cowboys -7 (-107, PointsBet) – WON
Dallas has been terrific in recent weeks defensively, dominating games and keeping them close so Rush and co can produce just enough offense to win the day.
Okay, that plan didn’t quite work in Philly but that matchup was a different level from anything the Cowboys have faced recently – and that includes the Super Bowl champion Rams.
This week that defense will need to step up to the plate again to shut down a Lions offense which was incredibly explosive until that shutout loss in Foxboro. Jared Goff has been a revelation so far this season, but we expect to see the wheels slowly coming off from here on out.
Offensively the Cowboys should have some joy too – this Lions defense cannot stop the run. Detroit ranks dead last, giving 167 yards per game on the ground. Enter Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, who again provided a really nice one-two punch in the second half of that losing effort in Philly.
Through the air the Cowboy passing game has grown stagnant in the last couple of weeks – Rush throwing for well under 200 yards in each of the games vs the Rams and Eagles. The return of Prescott – assuming he doesn’t have to shake rust off – should provide a boost.
That knee injury to Dalton Schultz is a concern – he missed the game in Philly after tweaking it – but the emergence of Jake Ferguson and the surprising Peyton Hendershott somewhat fills that void.
We really like the Cowboys to cover here – it feels like the perfect get-right game.
Total Points: Under 49 (-110, BetMGM) – WON
Okay on the fact of it you’d think people should be falling over themselves to take the over here. A Lions team that scores lots of points and can’t stop other teams, right? Not so fast.
That shutout loss in Foxboro showed there are limits to what Detroit can produce, and it is worth pointing out that the three real shootouts they were involved in all came at Ford Field. The numbers are not quite so gaudy on the road.
The line is pretty high here at 49 – you would expect this. But this Dallas defense is really formidable and only once so far this season – at Philly last weekend – has a Cowboys game hit the Over. Bet the Under.
Winning Margin: Dallas Cowboys by 7-12 Points (+400, PointsBet) – LOST
The Cowboys have been money this season at winning low-scoring games pretty comfortably. They can repeat that script here against the explosive Lions.
Three of those four wins with Rush under center came by 7-12 points, and it’s a window we love for this game too. We expect Dallas to cover but offensively they are not like the Cowboy teams of old. Don’t expect them to hang 40 on anybody.
Take that 7-12 sweet spot again as Micah Parsons and co shut down Detroit en route to a comfortable win.
Yes, the Cowboys go into their Week 7 matchup with Detroit at AT&T Stadium as a 7-point favorite.
The Cowboys are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) so far in 2022. The only times they missed was the opener vs Tampa Bay and that Sunday night loss to Philadelphia in Week 6.
Not great so far (like we already told you). They put up on average a shade over 18 points per game. The good thing is the defense only allows just over 16.
So far through 6 weeks Cowboy games average just under 35 points per game. There is a reason we are taking the Under with the line set at 49 for Sunday vs Detroit.