Sometimes just gotta take a little bit of a gamble in life, responsibly of course, and when your faithful columnist Stryker saw the Pittsburgh Steelers sitting at +7000 odds to win Super Bowl LVII, he was shocked.
When you are looking at the odds right now to land a Lombardi next February, you have to factor in one thing. They are real right now, but in a month’s team they will be fiction. Welcome to the NFL offseason.
Those crazy +7000 odds about Pittsburgh (bet $100 to win $7000 people) with FOX Bet are based on the fact they are walking in the franchise QB wilderness following the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger. And that Mason Rudolph is likely starting (heck we’d probably prefer his GF Genie Bouchard to be under center).
Pittsburgh is the 26th best team in the NFL if you look at the odds right now, on a par with the woeful Carolina Panthers and with only the following sorry cast rated worse:
- Chicago Bears
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- New York Giants
- Detroit Lions
- New York Jets
- Houston Texans
That my friends is quite simply laughable and here’s why.
Why should you bet Pittsburgh?
Our whole M.O. here at OddsCritic is about value, and right now we believe those +7000 odds represent value. Pittsburgh might not scale the mountain next February, but you will still have taken odds which were well worth the (small) risk). Yep, remember to keep the stakes small – at +7000 they don’t need to be huge.
The reason we like the Steelers are multiple:
- They are clearly in the market for a big-name replacement for Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh was one of three teams (along with Denver and Tennessee) who had realistic designs on prising Aaron Rodgers away from Green Bay. That now won’t happen but there are other quality options out there.
- Mike Tomlin is among the top three coaches in the NFL – he consistently squeezes every drop out of his roster. Somehow he got them to the playoffs last season despite the handicap of a laboring Roethlisberger. Tomlin is elite – and but for the emergence of Mike Vrabel in Tennesse he might still be #1 in our book.
- Pittsburgh has other needs, notably the offensive line. But the good news is it has cap space to fix all of this – currently more than $28million and the ability to free up more if required. This is a movable feast remember – all about having the best roster by September. A lot will happen between now and then.
- Finally (for now), Pittsburgh already has some elite pieces in position. Notably NFL DPOY T.J. Watt – coming off an incredible year, and last year’s terrific rookie RB Najee Harris. There are others but it is not like this roster is totally bereft of talent. There is significant hope already in the building, only increased by the fact we are now convinced the folly of starting Rudolph in 2022 will not be allowed to happen.
So hopefully you’ll now start to believe us when we say we’d be shocked if Pittsburgh is still +7000 when September comes around. More likely they’ll be half that or less. And if they do get a veteran star at QB – imagine Rodgers in Pittsburgh – they’ll immediately figure among the top contenders.
Free agency starts on March 16 and then we’ll start to see this thing unfold.
Do the Steelers have a chance of winning the Super Bowl?
See above. The odds would say this is highly unlikely, but the odds are about the right now, not about September.
We believe those odds will be a thing of fiction by the time we get past the 2022 NFL Draft at the end of April, so actually yes – we believe they do have a chance.
Pittsburgh Steelers Schedule 2022
We don’t know the EXACT schedule for the Steelers yet in 2022, but we do know who they will play and where.
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Road: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh officially has the 12th toughest schedule in the league with an opponent win record of 148-141 in 2020 (a win percentage of 0.512).